As shown in your tournament results, the ArmanBots get the highest win rate simply by analyzing other's behavior. They don't need Merlin or Perci to give any info by speech. So why bother cheap talk? If Merlin and Perci (and other res) are behaving well enough, naturally they will earn others' trust. As for the spies, in order to fail the missions, they unavoidably have to do bad things and will eventually be punished by the res. I believe relying mainly on team proposals, votes, and mission results, not being misled by the good actors and orators can help both AI and human players make better and more accurate decisions for their own team.
I appreciate hearing your thoughts, although my own intuitions do differ.
I think the ArmanBots are a bit of a special case, where they achieve a high win rate relative to other bots in large part because they favor copies of themselves over other bots, not that they're necessarily at a global maximum for optimal play.
I agree that it's best to rely on concrete data like votes and mission proposals when you can, but "cheap talk" is where a lot of the fun of the game is: using subtle social signals to nudge people in the right direction, or trying to trick spies into thinking you know more than you do as an ordinary resistance member.
Super interesting analysis, thank you! I love Avalon but it's hard to get a group to play...most of my friends are not fans of the 'hidden identity' genre, whereas I love it. Probably why I love playing poker, too.
Thanks so much! I also love the Hidden Identity genre, and think Avalon is its best manifestation, but you need to have the right group for it. Shadow Hunters/Fangs in its current rebrand is a fun game that mixes hidden identifies with combat between opposing teams and neutral characters caught in the middle, and One Night Ultimate Werewolf is a low stakes fast hidden identity game.
As shown in your tournament results, the ArmanBots get the highest win rate simply by analyzing other's behavior. They don't need Merlin or Perci to give any info by speech. So why bother cheap talk? If Merlin and Perci (and other res) are behaving well enough, naturally they will earn others' trust. As for the spies, in order to fail the missions, they unavoidably have to do bad things and will eventually be punished by the res. I believe relying mainly on team proposals, votes, and mission results, not being misled by the good actors and orators can help both AI and human players make better and more accurate decisions for their own team.
I appreciate hearing your thoughts, although my own intuitions do differ.
I think the ArmanBots are a bit of a special case, where they achieve a high win rate relative to other bots in large part because they favor copies of themselves over other bots, not that they're necessarily at a global maximum for optimal play.
I agree that it's best to rely on concrete data like votes and mission proposals when you can, but "cheap talk" is where a lot of the fun of the game is: using subtle social signals to nudge people in the right direction, or trying to trick spies into thinking you know more than you do as an ordinary resistance member.
Super interesting analysis, thank you! I love Avalon but it's hard to get a group to play...most of my friends are not fans of the 'hidden identity' genre, whereas I love it. Probably why I love playing poker, too.
Thanks so much! I also love the Hidden Identity genre, and think Avalon is its best manifestation, but you need to have the right group for it. Shadow Hunters/Fangs in its current rebrand is a fun game that mixes hidden identifies with combat between opposing teams and neutral characters caught in the middle, and One Night Ultimate Werewolf is a low stakes fast hidden identity game.